MLB's Surprising Underperformers: Unlocking the 2025 Pitching Puzzle
Are we overlooking some hidden gems in the MLB? It's time to dive into a controversial topic that might spark some heated debates among baseball enthusiasts. We're revealing the starting pitchers who, despite their impressive stats, may have left some fans wanting more in 2025.
Our focus is on OPS (On-base Plus Slugging), a powerful metric that can reveal a pitcher's true impact. By comparing actual OPS to expected OPS, we uncover the pitchers with the most significant disparities.
Garrett Crochet's 2025 season was remarkable, with a 2.59 ERA and 255 strikeouts in 205 1/3 innings. Yet, a deeper look reveals a fascinating story. Crochet allowed 24 home runs, but our expected stats suggest he should've allowed only 18, considering the type of batted balls and their trajectory. But here's where it gets intriguing...
Sports Info Solutions provides a unique perspective on expected stats, factoring in where and how hard balls are hit, and their hang time. This method offers a different lens to evaluate players. For Crochet, his .617 OPS against ranked 18th-lowest, but his expected OPS of .553 was the lowest among the same group of pitchers. This suggests he might have been even more dominant.
Let's illustrate this with a few examples. Rays' Carson Williams hit a front-row home run to right field at Steinbrenner Field, and Byron Buxton and Amed Rosario cleared the Green Monster with front-row shots. These instances highlight how Crochet's performance might have been affected by factors beyond his control.
Logan Webb, another standout, faced a similar situation with doubles. He allowed 14 more than expected, often due to poor defensive support. Two examples of catchable balls turning into doubles showcase the impact of defense on a pitcher's stats.
Our list of underachieving pitchers includes Crochet, Webb, and Dylan Cease, who struggled with defensive support last season. These pitchers had higher OPS values than expected, indicating potential for improvement.
The Top Underachievers:
| Pitcher | 2025 OPS | Expected OPS | Differential |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Antonio Senzatela | .949 | .855 | .094 |
| Aaron Nola | .805 | .715 | .090 |
| Ben Brown | .800 | .734 | .066 |
| Ryan Gusto | .805 | .741 | .064 |
| Garrett Crochet | .617 | .553 | .064 |
| Dylan Cease | .717 | .654 | .063 |
| Logan Webb | .694 | .631 | .063 |
| Jonathan Cannon | .838 | .779 | .059 |
| Tanner Bibee | .720 | .664 | .056 |
| Cade Povich | .812 | .758 | .055 |
Antonio Senzatela's OPS allowed was the highest in MLB, but his expected OPS wasn't much better. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola's season seemed less impressive than it was, as his expected OPS was closer to the middle of the pack.
Tanner Bibee's OPS against was significantly higher than expected, suggesting he might have been a victim of circumstances. Interestingly, most pitchers on the 2024 underachievers list improved their ERAs in 2025, with Hunter Brown making the most significant leap.
But what does this all mean for 2026? While these stats provide valuable insights, they don't guarantee future success. The game is full of surprises, and players must continually prove themselves. So, who do you think will rise above expectations next season? Are these underachievers destined for greatness, or is there more to the story? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments!
